New England Patriots vs Pittsburgh Steelers Prediction, Spread & Odds for Thursday Night Football Week 14

Dec 3, 2023; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA; Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Mitch Trubisky (10) looks to pass against the Arizona Cardinals during the fourth quarter at Acrisure Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY SportsThe Pittsburgh Steelers (7-5, 7-5 ATS) are 6-point home favorites over the New England Patriots (2-10, 2-10 ATS) in the NFL Week 14 TNF game on Thursday, December 7Pittsburgh will be starting backup QB Mitch Trubisky in place of injured QB1 Kenny PickettNew England is an NFL-worst 2-10 ATS this season. Read on for our top New England vs Pittsburgh predictions for TNF here

Things are getting bad for the Pittsburgh Steelers (7-5, 7-5 ATS), but they are already worse for the New England Patriots (2-0, 2-10 ATS). So bad, that’s it’s Pittsburgh favored by nearly a touchdown in the Patriots vs Steelers odds.

Pittsburgh has lost two of the last three games and the Steelers have also lost their starting QB. Kenny Pickett went on IR after suffering an ankle injury in Sunday’s home-field loss to the Arizona Cardinals.

The Patriots gave a start to backup QB Bailey Zappe on Sunday. However, it didn’t prevent New England from losing for the fifth time in a row and eighth time in nine games.

Even without their QB1, oddsmakers are still liking Pittsburgh as 6-point home favorites in the Patriots vs Steelers odds. New England is 0-5 ATS over the past five games.

Diving deeper into this Patriots vs Steelers prediction and matchup, we’ll supply you with our best bet for this Week 14 showdown featuring these AFC rivals.

Patriots vs Steelers Odds

In the New England vs Pittsburgh odds, the Steelers are -290 moneyline favorites, giving them a 74.36% implied win probability. The total is set at 30.5 points. At 2-10 on the total this season, Pittsburgh has gone over an NFL-low 16.7% of the time.

New England vs Pittsburgh odds as of December 6 at FanDuel Sportsbook. Be sure to claim one of the best best NFL betting promos to make your Patriots vs Steelers picks and to bet on other Week 14 NFL action. And check out FanDuel’s daily menu of odds boosts for TNF and other games this week.

Kickoff for this game at Acrisure Stadium on Thursday, December 7 is set for 8:15pm ET. The broadcast is being carried by Prime Video and by DAZN in Canada.

Public Bettors Divided On Outcome

The latest NFL public betting splits for this game are displaying that the people are leaning toward Pittsburgh winning, but New England covering. The Steelers are getting 81% of moneyline handle. However, it’s the Patriots who are pulling 52% of spread handle.

New England is an NFL-worst 2-10 ATS this season. As a road underdog, the Patriots are 0-3 ATS. The Steelers are 2-1 as a home favorite.

New England is 7-1 SU in the last eight meetings with Pittsburgh. The Steelers are 1-7 SU in their last eight games facing a team from the AFC East.

The under has been the winning play in six of the last seven New England vs Pittsburgh games. In four of Pittsburgh’s past five home games, the under was also the winning play. Nine of the last 11 Patriots games also hit on the under.

In the odds to win Super Bowl, Pittsburgh is the co-15th betting choice with a line of +9500.  The Steelers are at a betting line of +800 to win the AFC North in the NFL divisional odds.

Steelers Not That Bad Off With Trubisky

There’s certainly doom and gloom in the mood of the Steelers faithful now that Trubisky is the team’s QB of choice. However, in comparison to what’s going on under center for the Patriots, things aren’t nearly as bad as they seem.

So it will be Mitch Trubisky vs. the Patriots, eh? pic.twitter.com/TdZT3Slygy

— Mike DeFabo (@MikeDeFabo) December 4, 2023

Trubisky is 2-3 SU as a starter for Pittsburgh. He’s 31-24 in his career in 55 games as an NFL starting QB.

Now, that doesn’t mean that there isn’t justifiable cause for concern. Trubisky has thrown 229 passes for Pittsburgh. Seven were intercepted and only six went for TDs. His passer rating is a pedestrian 76.15.

2024-25 NFL Win Totals: Best Over/Under Odds for All 32 TeamsRead More

Patriots Are Underwhelming

The total on this game opened at 35 points and has shortened to 30.5 points. There hasn’t been a total under 30 points in an NFL game since 1993.

New England has scored in single digits in three successive games. The Pats have gone under 18 points five games in a row. Last week, the Patriots lost 6-0 at home to the Chargers. It was the second shutout loss they’ve suffered this season. In 10 of 12 games they’ve tallied fewer than 20 points.

Ezekiel Elliott on his frustration with the #Patriots offense:

“I feel bad for those guys on the defensive side of the ball.”

New England’s defense has allowed 10 points or less in each of the last 3 weeks. pic.twitter.com/OWAwtUfbZq

— Carlos Talks Pats (@LosTalksPats) December 3, 2023

At 3-9 on the total, New England goes under the second-most in the NFL. You know what? The Steelers, at 2-10, are worse. Pittsburgh has registered 16 points or less in three straight games. The Steelers have scored fewer than 20 points in seven games.

Patriots vs Steelers Prediction

New England is also missing a key player for this game. RB Rhamondre Stevenson (ankle) is out. Meaning Ezekiel Elliott could be worth a play in the Patriots vs Steelers props.

The Steelers have one thing going for them that should be the difference maker in this game – an opportunistic defense that gets to the QB (34 sacks), forces turnovers (20 takeaways) and is ranked #8 in the NFL.

Take Pittsburgh to cover and as crazy as it seems, maybe make a play on the under as well.

Patriots vs Steelers Picks: Pittsburgh Steelers -6 (-110)

TNF Record: 8-5-0

Want a no-sweat SGP for Thursday’s game? Right now you can get a No Sweat $5 FanDuel SGP open to all new and existing customers. Sign-up and claim your new customer promo first or sign-in, go to the “Promos” tab and opt-in to this promotion. Make your pre-live SGP of at least $5 and three legs and receive $5 in a sportsbook bonus if your bet loses.