Top 3 MLB Odds, Picks & Predictions: Wednesday (7/31)

Yesterday saw a flurry of last minute deals and transactions ahead of the Major League Baseball trade deadline, and now all 30 teams are more or less finalized (barring late season call-ups) for the rest of the season. How will many of these new-look teams fare today?

Read on to find out which teams are involved in our top MLB picks for Wednesday, July 31.

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    Wednesday’s Top MLB Picks

    (MLB odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)

    New York Yankees (+116) @ Philadelphia Phillies (-136) | O/U 9.5 (+106/-130) 

    New York Yankees starting pitcher Nestor Cortes has egregious home/road splits this season. The southpaw is 0-5 with a 6.18 ERA and a .313 OBA in 11 road starts compared to a 4-4 record and a 2.48 ERA with a .207 OBA in 11 starts at Yankee Stadium. Making matters worse is that the Yankees are facing a left-handed starting pitcher as well, and they are 52-30 against right-handed starting pitchers but 11-15 against lefties.

    New York ranks 13th in wRC+ against left-handed pitching, but their slugging and batting average ranks 21st and 26th, respectively in that split. Perhaps the Yankees are still being overvalued by their dominant offensive performance against Zack Wheeler in the series opener on Monday, but we have full confidence that Cristopher Sanchez, who ranks in the 96th percentile in chase rate and the 89th in barrels, will guide Philadelphia to a lead through the first five innings this afternoon.

    MLB Pick: Phillies First Five Innings ML (-145)

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    Texas Rangers (-108) @ St. Louis Cardinals (-108) | O/U 9 (-115/-105) 

    The Texas Rangers have alternated wins and losses in Andrew Heaney’s last eight starts, and with them coming off a 6-5 loss to the Toronto Blue Jays in his last outing (three of the four losses in that span have been by two or fewer runs), logic would say the Rangers are due for a victory. However, the biggest reason for us backing the defending World Series champions is that the St. Louis Cardinals are turning to a pitcher making his MLB debut, who is also a pitcher that does not figure to be in the rotation going forward, as this feels like more of a spot start.

    Michael McGreevy is the former 18th overall pick of the 2021 draft. And though he crept up to the organization’s No. 21 ranked prospect, per Baseball America, scouts project his only above-average pitch to be his slider, as his fastball sits in the lower 90s, and he does not miss many bats. The Cardinals have played 16 consecutive days which necessitated the need to call up McGreevy, and the Rangers should take advantage, especially since they have won seven of their last 11 games against teams currently over .500.

    MLB Pick: Rangers ML (-108)

    Los Angeles Dodgers (+102) @ San Diego Padres (-120) | O/U 7.5 (-104/-118) 

    I am a bit weary of buying too high on Dylan Cease, especially since he is coming off a 114-pitch no-hitter in his last start. However, he has thrown 110-plus pitches twice this season, and he has allowed four earned runs in 12 2/3 innings in his two starts combined following those lengthy outings, so we expect him to be able to turn in another solid performance today.

    Cease has not allowed a run in any of his last three starts, spanning 22 innings, and has 30 strikeouts to seven walks in that span. And prior to his no-hitter, OptaSTATS had a mind-boggling stat about Cease, citing that his four starts of seven-plus innings while allowing one or fewer hits this season tied the record set by Hall of Famer Pete Alexander in 1915 for the most such starts by a pitcher in a season in the modern era.

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    I love what San Diego did at the trade deadline to bolster its bullpen, adding Tanner Scott and Bryan Hoeing from the Miami Marlins, who are now paired with Robert Suarez, Jason Adam, Jeremiah Estrada, and Adrian Morejon. They should be able to nail down the final innings after building a lead against Clayton Kershaw, who is still kicking off the rust after throwing just 72 pitches and lasting four innings in his season debut in his last start.

    MLB Pick: Padres ML (-120)

    Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.

    Mike Spector