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We have a fantastic weekend of sports on the horizon, and I suggest we get the party started by locking in a few longshot home run prop bets. Here are three players who are primed to touch €˜em all tonight in the MLB.
- MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet
- MLB Consensus Odds
- Top Bettor Picks for MLB
- MLB Betting Systems
MLB Home Run Prop Bet Odds & Picks
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Trea Turner (+340)
The top-two winningest teams of the season open up a weekend series tonight as the Guardians (.598 win%) square off against the Phillies (.627 win%). Ben Lively gets the nod for Cleveland, while Philadelphia counters with Cristopher Sanchez. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40 p.m. ET from Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, PA.
Lively has been a solid option for the Guardians this season, entering the weekend at 8-6 with a 3.57 ERA and 1.19 WHIP. However, he’s been susceptible to conceding the long ball, as his HR/9 rate is 1.45. The right-hander has allowed five home runs over 22.0 innings this month, logging a 5.32 ERA along the way.
Meanwhile, Trea Turner simply cannot stop hitting home runs. The shortstop launched another bomb in Wednesday’s 5-4 loss to the Twins, bringing him to 10 homers in the month of July. Turner’s slashing an impressive .356/.397/.767 over 73 at-bats in July. He has seen Lively well in the past, going 2-4 (.500) against him with a home run and a triple. Let’s ride with Turner to touch €˜em all tonight.
Anthony Santander (+360)
The Orioles snapped a three-game slide yesterday, barely edging out the Marlins in a 7-6 contest. They’ll look to keep things rolling tonight when they take on the Padres, who are coming off a no-hit victory from Dylan Cease against the Nationals. The pitching matchup for the series opener pits Adam Mazur against Grayson Rodriguez. First pitch is set for 7:05 p.m. ET from Camden Yards in Baltimore, MD.
Mazur is getting called back up from Triple-A El Paso, so that should indicate how his 2024 campaign has gone. The right-hander sits at 1-3 with a 7.84 ERA and 1.84 WHIP over seven starts (31.0 IP) in the MLB this season. He’s been hindered by the home run ball, allowing 1.45 of them per nine innings. That’s not necessarily a recipe for success when squaring off against a Baltimore offense that leads the MLB in home runs (160) this season.
Twenty-eight of those 160 tanks have been hit by Anthony Santander. It’s the third-most in the Majors, and he’s tied with Gunnar Henderson for the team lead. Santander has been crushing the ball recently, blasting five homers in his last six games. He’s also riding an 11-game hit streak as we enter the weekend. We have no head-to-head data against Mazur, but I think the switch-hitting outfielder is primed to do some damage in this matchup.
Brent Rooker (+285)
The Athletics took care of business last night, beating the Angels in a 6-5 series opening affair. The divisional foes are back at it tonight, and we have a pitching matchup between Paul Blackburn and Carson Fulmer. First pitch is scheduled for 9:38 p.m. ET from Angel Stadium in Anaheim, CA.
Speaking of guys who cannot stop hitting home runs, I’d be remiss not to mention Brent Rooker. The Oakland outfielder homered again in last night’s victory, moving him up to 24 yabos on the season. That’s the seventh-most in the Majors. In July, the 29-year-old has nine bombs to go along with a 1.329 OPS over 68 at-bats.
Rooker will take on Carson Fulmer, who has looked decent with a 3.66 ERA and 1.24 WHIP over 26 outings (51.2 IP) in 2024. Rooker has dominated Fulmer in the head-to-head category, going 3-4 (.750) against him with a pair of doubles and a single. This Oakland offense is on fire right now, and I think Rooker’s another likely candidate to go deep tonight.
Highest HR/9 Starting Pitchers Today
- Keider Montero (1.99, 31.2 IP)
- Kyle Hendricks (1.79, 75.1 IP)
- Pablo Lopez (1.46, 111.0 IP)
- Adam Mazur (1.45, 31.0 IP)
- Ben Lively (1.45, 93.1 IP)
