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I’m Andrew Erickson, and I’m here to guide you through each game on the NFL slate, offering insights and recommendations on sides, totals, and player props that you can quickly turn into a big single-game parlay. Whether you’re a seasoned bettor or just dipping your toes into the world of NFL wagering €“ I know that I am for the first time now that my state has legalized wagering €“ this primer is designed to provide you with valuable perspectives and picks for the upcoming NFL week of action. Here are my top picks for Seahawks vs. Lions.
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NFL Betting Primer: Seahawks vs. Lions
Seattle Seahawks at Detroit Lions – Spread Line: DET -4.5
The look-ahead lines for this matchup had this matchup pegged as a field goal game, but Seattle’s big home loss versus a no-named Rams unit has bettors backing off Geno Smith and company. But should they? Again, Seattle’s BIG loss to the Rams might have been overblown. The net success rate for LA was average versus the Seahawks. And it’s not like the Rams are getting credit for their big win over Seattle as they are massive home underdogs (+8.5) versus the 49ers. Completely writing off the Rams without Cooper Kupp was a big oversight on my part last week. When we saw last season, a Baker Mayfield-led Rams team forced an OT contest with Seattle in Week 18.
Regardless, the market is stating its claim that it’s already off the Seahawks bandwagon.
But what really happened to Seattle versus the Rams? Because they were up 13-7 at halftime. Well, they lost both starting offensive tackles, between Charles Cross and Abraham Lucas. So, after they scored on their first three drives, they missed a FG and it was all downhill from there. Four straight punts. 2 for 9 on third downs. 180 yards of offense to the Rams’ 426. The Rams DOMINATED the time of possession. Nearly doubled 40 vs. 20 mins. Game over.
It’s looking unlikely that either tackle is ready for Week 2, as the Seahawks brought in two more tackles from their practice squad: Jason Peters and Greg Eiland. Abe Lucas will not play after being placed on IR. Obviously, that is problematic for the offense, but they may be able to game plan around the tackle issues with a full week to prepare without them, as opposed to in-game where it’s tougher to adjust on the fly. Also needs to be noted that the Lions don’t possess an elite pass-rush unit. So, the OT problems may be slightly overblown in the line.
Especially considering Seattle entered the year as PFF’s 30th-ranked OL. The rookie tackles were not as good during the second half of the 2022 season. And that lead to Seattle underperforming versus expectations. From Week 12 onward Seattle went 1-7 versus the spread. Including their home loss last week, that jumps to 1-8 versus Sincethe spread (4-5 toward the under).
All things considered, I don’t think we are in a spot to confidently back Seattle against a Lions team coming off extra rest and playing at home. Again, the Lions were the league’s top offense at home (33.1). Detroit is also 18-7 (72%) vs. the spread in games with 54 points or fewer scored since current offensive coordinator Ben Johnson took on a larger role in calling the Detroit offense.
And Seattle’s defense is still horrible with a severe lack of pass rush. Only Denver posted a lower pressure rate in Week 1. When Jared Goff plays at home and has time in the pocket, he delivers. Back Detroit in this matchup and be confident they put up points at home. Seattle’s offense should do enough to keep things competitive, but I think their OL issues will show up in the second half like they did in Week 1.
As for props, I have two that I like. Over for tight end Sam Laporta on his receiving yards and over on Kenneth Walker’s receiving yards. LaPorta went over his projected total in his rookie debut, and there’s nothing about his usage that suggests he won’t continue hitting this number. He commanded five targets for 5 catches and 39 yards. He finished third in the team in route participation (72%). This number in a vacuum is excellent for a tight and is even better considering, the Lions offense is mostly depleted of talent outside of Amon-Ra St. Brown. We got Tyler Higbee over last week when he took on Seattle -3-49 – so let’s just keep targeting tight ends versus Seattle’s defense.
As for Walker, he’s coming off a game where he ran a route on more than 50% of the dropbacks and drew 4 targets. He was targeted on 25% of his routes but failed to turn any into worthwhile gains. But note, he would have easily hit the OVER last week has he not been screwed by a 6-yard loss on his first reception. After that, Walker caught 3 balls for 9 yards at the start of the second quarter. Given the injuries on the OL, I think the quick game may be more apparent in Seattle’s approach leading for Walker to see continued work in the passing game. He also possesses an explosive skill set, so it just takes one for him to go over 8.5 receiving yards. Both Jerick McKinnon and Isiah Pacheco surpassed 10 receiving yards vs. the Lions in Week 1.
- My picks: Detroit -4.5 (-110 FanDuel Sportsbook), Lions over 26.5 points (-115 DraftKings Sportsbook)
- My props: Sam LaPorta over 34.5 receiving yards (-110 BetMGM), Kenneth Walker III over 8.5 receiving yards (-120 DraftKings Sportsbook)
What is Betting Against the Spread?
Betting "against the spread" refers to the act of choosing the winning team based on a numeric handicap placed on the team that oddsmakers believe is superior, rather than picking the outright winner. For example, if the Rams face the Bengals, and oddsmakers set the spread at Rams -3.5, you would need Los Angeles to win by 4 or more points in order to cash your Rams bet.
What is an Over/Under Bet?
Over/Under is a wager based on how many points you think will be scored in a specific game. Oddsmakers set the total, and bettors decide whether the final score will be higher or lower than that number. If an Over/Under is set at 44.5 points and you bet Over, you will need the combined score of both teams to be 45 points or higher to win your bet.
What is a Moneyline Bet?
A moneyline bet involves choosing which team you believe will win a specific matchup. The moneyline favorite carries a minus designation, like -130. This means that you need to wager $130 to earn a $100 profit. Conversely, the underdog carries a plus designation, like +110. This means that you win $110 in profit on a $100 bet.
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