Ravens vs Jaguars Same-Game Parlay Sunday Night Football Predictions

Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence (16) calls a play during the second quarter of a regular season NFL football matchup Sunday, Nov. 27, 2022 at TIAA Bank Field in Jacksonville. The Jaguars edged the Ravens 28-27. [Corey Perrine/Florida Times-Union]Jki 112722 Nfl Ravens Jags Cp 106Baltimore and Jacksonville meet on Sunday Night Football tonightThe Jaguars beat the Ravens in Jacksonville last year on the strength of 321 yards and three TDs from Trevor LawrenceSee a +121 Ravens vs Jaguars same-game parlay for SNF on Dec. 17

A pivotal game in the AFC playoff race takes place on Sunday Night Football in Week 15 as the Jacksonville Jaguars (8-5, 3-4 home, 8-5 ATS) play host to the Baltimore Ravens (10-3, 5-1 away, 8-5 ATS) at EverBank Stadium.

The Ravens need a win to maintain their one-game lead over Miami in the race for the #1 seed in the AFC, while the Jaguars need a win to maintain their one-game lead over Indianapolis at the top of the AFC South. The Ravens are listed as 3.5-point road favorites against a Jacksonville team that’s lost two in a row. But today’s Ravens/Jaguars same-game parlay is banking on the home team keeping it close and getting reasonable production from its main offensive weapons.

Ravens vs Jaguars Same-Game Parlay Picks

The first leg of this three-leg +121 parlay is the Jags to at least keep the margin to ten points or fewer. It culminates with bets on QB Trevor Lawrence and receiver Zay Jones to hit very manageable yardage totals.

Odds as of Dec. 17 at FanDuel. Bettors who already have a FanDuel account can claim this ESPN Bet promo code before betting on BAL vs JAX. 

Last week’s Eagles/Cowboys SGP was a complete dud, missing on all three legs. But I am still up a tidy +6.13 units on NFL same-game parlays for the season.

BAL vs JAX Same-Game Parlay Pick #1: Jaguars +10.5

In my Ravens vs Jaguars prediction earlier today, I explained why I think the Jaguars are good value to win straight-up as +160 home underdogs. The same rationale applies here, but with a much bigger margin of error.  Baltimore is an NFL-best 5-1 on the road this year (including a neutral-site win over Tennessee in London), but only one of those victories came by more than 10 points, a 28-3 rout at Cleveland in Week 4.

They won by a field goal at Cincinnati (27-24), a touchdown at Arizona (31-24) and exactly 10 at the floundering Chargers (20-10), while losing 17-10 at Pittsburgh. Jacksonville is a top-ten team in DVOA, beat the Ravens at home last year, and needs a W today to maintain its lead over the Colts at the top of the AFC South.

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Ravens vs Jaguars SGP Pick #2: Lawrence Over 199.5 Passing Yards

Trevor Lawrence is averaging just over 250 passing yards per game this season and sits ninth in the league in total yards (3,261). He’s only been held under two bills twice this year: the fist was during a 37-20 rout of Indianapolis when the Colts were nursing a big lead (not likely tonight); the second was during an ugly 34-3 loss to San Francisco when Lawrence was sacked five times.

The Ravens defense is one of the best in the league (second in DVOA) and leads the NFL in sacks with 49, but the last time they met Lawrence, the Clemson product racked up 321 yards and three touchdowns (despite being sacked four times).

Coming back from the ankle injury that was clearly still impacting him in Week 14’s loss to Cleveland, Lawrence was a full participant at practice on Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday this week.

Pick #3: Zay Jones Over 24.5 Receiving Yards

Largely due to injury, Zay Jones isn’t having a banner year. After piling up a career-best 823 receiving yards last year in just 16 games (51.4 YPG), Jones has just 215 yards in seven games this season (30.7 YPG). But he’s looked the best he has all year in the past two games and, not coincidentally, his target rate has gone up with WR1 Christian Kirk injured.

Against the Bengals in Week 13 (when Kirk left early), Jones had a season-high 78 yards on five catches. Last week against the Browns, he only had 29 yards, but he was targeted by Lawrence 14 times.

Zay Jones loves playing the Ravens pic.twitter.com/0CGJDV83co

— Brett James (@thebrettjames1) December 17, 2023

It should also be noted that the best game of Jones’ six-plus-year career came against Baltimore last season, when he had a career-high 145 receiving yards on 11 catches. His previous game against the Ravens, while still with the Raiders in 2021, saw him catch the game-winning TD in overtime while collecting 46 total receiving yards.